Analytics · Models

The famous curves, fitted honestly.

Power law, rainbow, halving cycles, plain compounding — every model fitted to our own daily history, with its assumptions in plain sight.

Models, not advice. These are curves fitted to the past. None of them knows the future — when a model breaks, it breaks without warning.

Model price today

$110.1k

Price vs model

−42%

below the trend line

Fitted exponent

5.23

R² 0.935

Model in 4 years

$322k

center line, extrapolated

Power law corridor

log price vs. log days since genesis (Jan 3, 2009), fitted on our full daily history. Solid lines ±1σ, dashed ±2σ. Right of the last close is extrapolation.

200-week MA (the floor)

$42.3k

price is 1.52× the floor

Mayer multiple

0.87

price ÷ 200-day MA · 2.4 = historically hot

How to read this

The power law model: Bitcoin's price has historically grown along a straight line when BOTH price and age are drawn on log scales. The corridor shows that line and how far price has historically strayed from it.

The orange dashed line is the fitted trend; the grey lines are ±1 and ±2 standard deviations of the historical scatter.
Price has spent years above AND below the center line — the model says nothing about timing.
The extrapolation assumes the next years behave statistically like the last decade. That is an assumption, not a fact.
A growing asset cannot follow a power law forever; every model eventually breaks.

Key numbers

Model today: $110.1k
−1σ (historically cheap): $61.7k
+1σ (historically rich): $196.4k