Analytics · Models
The famous curves, fitted honestly.
Power law, rainbow, halving cycles, plain compounding — every model fitted to our own daily history, with its assumptions in plain sight.
Model price today
$113.5k
Price vs model
−32%
below the trend line
Fitted exponent
5.15
R² 0.936
Model in 4 years
$322k
center line, extrapolated
Power law corridor
log price vs. log days since genesis (Jan 3, 2009), fitted on our full daily history. Solid lines ±1σ, dashed ±2σ. Right of the last close is extrapolation.
200-week MA (the floor)
$48.2k
price is 1.60× the floor
Mayer multiple
1.06
price ÷ 200-day MA · 2.4 = historically hot
How to read this
The power law model: Bitcoin's price has historically grown along a straight line when BOTH price and age are drawn on log scales. The corridor shows that line and how far price has historically strayed from it.
- The orange dashed line is the fitted trend; the grey lines are ±1 and ±2 standard deviations of the historical scatter.
- Price has spent years above AND below the center line — the model says nothing about timing.
- The extrapolation assumes the next years behave statistically like the last decade. That is an assumption, not a fact.
- A growing asset cannot follow a power law forever; every model eventually breaks.
Key numbers
- Model today
- $113.5k
- −1σ (historically cheap)
- $64.2k
- +1σ (historically rich)
- $200.5k