Analytics · Macro Signal
The macro, scored.
Is the macro backdrop a tailwind or a headwind for Bitcoin? Each indicator's recent trend is scored supportive or restrictive — from free public Fed data.
Overall regime
Supportive for Bitcoin
Net score +2 across 11 indicators
RestrictiveNeutralSupportive
Liquidity
Neutral- M2 Money Supply23,218+2.0%Supportive
- Fed Balance Sheet6,737,204+0.4%Neutral
- Reverse Repo0.63+61.8%Restrictive
Rates
Restrictive- Fed Funds Rate3.63%+0.3%Neutral
- 10-Year Treasury4.78%+5.1%Restrictive
- 2-Year Treasury4.37%+4.8%Restrictive
Dollar
Supportive- US Dollar (Broad)118.07−1.7%Supportive
Credit
Supportive- High-Yield Spread2.68%−3.6%Supportive
- Financial Conditions-0.56−9.6%Supportive
Growth & Inflation
Supportive- CPI (Inflation)332.81+0.1%Neutral
- Unemployment4.10%−4.7%Supportive
Our model, transparently: each indicator is scored by its ~3-month trend and whether rising helps or hurts Bitcoin liquidity/risk appetite. Source: FRED (Federal Reserve, public domain). Not financial advice.